29 Comments

  1. Heads up: You mentioned ACB.TO didn't perform as well as ACB did on the charts, therefore, there is a ? on ACB.TO strength/performance versus the US listing. The reason for the lack of CDN performance is currency related only. The CDN dollar had a large rally on Friday and the price of ACB.TO is tied to the exchange rate between currencies. Therefore, you should be looking at the US chart and not rely on the CDN chart going forward as currency is distorting your analysis. Try to look at other multi-listed stocks in the same way. In the past, you have used volume as your determinator and it doesn't work when US listings gain strength in volume too. So you should know that the US price times cash US/CDN dollar equals the CDN price. Forget the CDN chart.

  2. Thanks Dan, made my own list of equilibrium patterns and look forward to comparing with yours.  I've watched all your videos for a year now and I still learn new things every week.  Really appreciate you taking time to share.  That really is a good thing.

  3. I wonder if you going to talk about Crop Infrastructure one day , good company on my opinion. Probably too small and too early to talk . But thx for your videos ! You didn't say anything about trade war cooling down , employment rate going up , oil going back up , lots of good indicators , still kinda on the bull side but should be good 2019 ..

  4. Hey Dan. Great insight, as usual. I would like to add some thoughts aimed more at the fundamentals. In my opinion we have three tiers of Canadian MJ. The top five, the middle three, then everyone else. HEXO, OGI, TRST are all low cost producers, have solid financials, good inventory, and will have over 100 000kg capacity very soon. I would definitely rate them ahead of everyone except the top five. In fact, looking at facilities, they are not far behind CRON, if at all.
     
    IMO, these middle three companies can justify their valuations better than other cannabis companies and that includes the big five, with the exception of CGC. When rec sales start showing on the income statement these middle three companies are going to show excellent numbers. I can also tell you that all three of these companies have product that is FAR better than ACB and APHA—I have yet to try something from CRON or TLRY.

    I wouldn't be surprised to see these middle three companies double in valuation over the mid term.

  5. Check out Wildflower Brands for a high-risk, high-reward but very unknown U.S. marijuana play focused on CBD (with a tight float). Their business model is all about consumer products, which is where the margins are. It is on its way to becoming an early leader with established distribution channels and excellent products. As Dan mentioned, with U.S. companies likely outperforming their Canadian counterparts, Wildflower should do very well in 2019 IMO.

Leave a Reply